Well it’s difficult these times to get some non mainstream reports on Greece. It’s impossible to find much critique in any german newspaper or magazine.
But there are few side remarks borrowed at the end of some articles sometimes, and one can get a little bit more infromaton on the Neue Züricher Zeitung. (Which fails unfortunatly miserable on Swiss affairs)
So this are the information I gathered. Today in the BNN. The greek government has calculated with 30 billions extra taxes, now is was reported. The supposed payers are owned by the Greece state and most of them are bankrupt!!! 30 billions means that this money simply is lacking in the “income” of the Greece state. With the information from here:
Greece Gdp 240 billons
Income (taxes) 75 billions
Expenses 105 billions
new debts30 billions.
Well just double the debts with this, and we are in the region of new debts well above 20%, of the GDP. Which still is shrinking. If anyone can see this as sustainable, I’m afraid he should see ones doctor.
Another information from the NZZ stated. That even after a year, the government does not know how many really do work in government or government owned corporations. Now this is a another bummer.
Add to this that the calculate with more than 25% of the working population, is working for government (currently known) and you see how deep their troubles are.
In fact all the figures they’ve come up with are not even guess work, just wishful thinking. So m conclusion is Greece is completly messed up. There is no way that they even will be able to pay more than 20% or of their debt. So in fact the 300 billions of debt must be depreciated to maybe 30 or so billions. So a definitive loss for the creditors of 90%. I’ll bet neither Sarkozy nor Merkel will mention it. So fact is the money we gave to Greece is lost.
My conclusion is harsh but simple: “Game over”. There’s no way Greece can get out of this without a terrible loss of anything. I’m afraid poverty will be the logical consequence. Because the young Greeks won’t find any work in Greece, they will emmigrate. And the GDP will shrink even more. Because of the irresponsibility of the “leading” Greeks, we’ll see what may happen to us. During the great depression, states do not had have anything like that many debts as we’ve before. Imagine the interest payments….
I can not quantify is as anything but devastating. The state of Greece will not survive (at least not in this form), I won’t exclude a military coup.