Could need helping hints

As you have seen in my previous entry, I can not see that a debt ratio of states can be related to GDP.. So I’m looking for a rough idea on how high the prroperty value of the diverse states may be. I know that not all of it is disponible but it’s still is something “owned” by the states. The GDP is not owned by anyone. It’s just a number of all the work done in a year.

We then see how high the debts are and what will happen if government will have to pay “normal” interest not this artificial low interest set by the Fed

So any hints are welcome. One I got was: debtclocl of the US….

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The madnesss of GDP related debts.

I’m suprised that a debts rate of is calculated with the GDP.

I know “every” does it. But if are at the edge of a canyon, and everyone is marching on, makes this march not less stupid

Let’s translate it into our “world” (the non government world) So I’M living in Heidelsheim around 5000 inhabitants. Now what the produce can be seen as “my” GDP.
So let’s assume I have 100 000 EUR debts. But all i all the 5000 people would produce an GDP of 1 000 000. So my debt/GDP ratio is just 10%. According to this I guess my finances would be sound.

But know we get back into reality. I do not have access on the money of my neighbours. I’ve my income. So let’s calculate with an income of 25000. So I’d need at least 4 years to pay back all my debts. Would you think my financial situation is sound? Well you would ask what else does he have to “secure” the liability. So let’s be generous and give me 200 000 EUR . So in reality I’d just have 100 000 EUR (assuming I could make my property to money at an immediate notice)
Still the question are my finances sound? We still don’t know.

Now let’s switch back to the state analogy. As we know states do not have a balanced balance sheet. Each year they need extra credit. Now let’s assume I’m one of the better one’s and just need 10% extra debts on my income. That means each year I’d add another 2500 EUR debts. So let’s calculate with an interest of 5%. So my payments currently are around 5000 EUR. Next year I’ve to pay 1375 EUR interest. No let’s calculate if I do that for 50 years. I than have a debt of 600 000 EUR (if I could bear at lest all the interest) and my interest payment would be around: 30000. Which is absolutly impossible. So now you can say, my situation is all but sound.

But now back to the case of the government. Let us assume a GDP groswoth of the Heidelsheimer inhabitants of around 2.5%. So in 50 years we’d have a GDP (without inflation!!!!) of 3 437 109. EUR and my debt/GDP ratio just would be:
0,174565311 that are 17,5%. Still for states this is sound?

So I do not think that Debt/GDP is a wortwhile measure. We should just allow governments do calculate their debts with their income. Just imagine what 160% debt of the GDP means … So I can not see how e.g Greece could “bear” that and in fact it’s getting more and more obvious… they can’t….

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What signals does the EU safety chute emit?

I’m currently reading about the report of the IMF about Greece. You can find it under:http://www.imf.org/external/country/index.htm

I’m very skeptical over any of these just be states controlled supranational institutions. I feel we think there money for doubtful outcomes. And in a way I think this are parrallel universes cycling around themselves.
So the biggest problems with this organizations is that they “can not fail” whatever they do. It does not matter how much money they thing while contributing to keeping corrupt regimes running. You know there is not “market” for their offers.
Theres is but one IMF. So whatever they decide to do or not is conclusive.

This is near inerrable. Yes there may be critique voices. And still one has to concede there are also clever (and surely well paid) specialists there. So we probably can learn from their findings. Unfortunately we do not have any influence on how to react on those findings. So overall I see the IMF as part of the problem not the solution.

For normal banks the “lenders of the last resort” are in that order. The own central bank, the own government, (in the EU) the EU commission, and then comes the IMF) . So quite a lot of those “taking” away the responsibility on standing on one’s own feet. And still the IMF is plagued with one terrible problem. The just decide bureaucratically. They ask for papers over papers (which someone has to gather), then the follow procedures (which no the sure way a market tells whether you did right or wrong) . But if the procedures are followed, nothing can happen. They still will get their payments, and gain influence over time just because if somethings going wrong they will be the “saviors”.

But back to the report. I suggest really reading it there you can find a lot of information (unfortunately in diplomatic speech) which really makes it a plagued reading. However you can see that at least something happens.

As I can see this actions still have no calming impacts. If they actions would be honored or would have a good influence on the debt situation, it should be no problem to get new credits. But still the required interests are beyond anything one really can bear. If I do have to trust supranational organizations or markets I know what side to take. But the deledefs just see their side. They never really bother thinking about markets. It’s always the markets are evil (and we have to fight the markets) and they loose every time. But they do not learn anything from it.

Au contraire, they do the same mistakes over and over and over and over again. Just see “This time is different” and you can see, their fallings. Instead of not “having” some extra last lender of last resort” a new last lender is invented, every time. Now imagine a world in which this things were not their and money sound. Nobody could get that large to threaten the system and even then, there would be no one “saving” them. Would you expect the same hazardous behavior?

The realy problem we all have is that money is a monopoly of states, and they enforce it with any means. And that’s where we call get caught. So let’s work for freeing our money for any government influence and we’ll be much finer.

So what signals can you see in the EU “safety” chute. It’s the signal that wrong-doers are saved from their responsibility. And that’s what sticks. Everything in EUR land just tells. Don’t bother to live within your bounds. You can have party and after that you may have some hang-over but don’t be afraid, you can have the next party the day after tomorrow.

This signal is understood by the markets but not by governments. The interest rate of up to 15% and higher tell exactly what one can expect a default within the next three years….

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Stimulus at work

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2011/05/029042.php

Just one word: devastating.

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How does QE come into "life"

I’m wondering. I could not find the first mention of this “anti-word”

Can anyone give me a hint?

Wikipedia suggests:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing So it was “born” in Japan. And well AFAIKT it does not have worked that well, or am I mistaken?

For me QE is just printing money under different words.

Another question in this regards. Does anyone know of a country which does not have Fiat-money? It seems that at least in the US the pendulum swings back to “better ” money. Currently the defenders of the worthless fiat-money
are supressing other solutions. But know: “First they laugh at you, then they they fight you, then you win” or the like. I do not know when this card-house of bad money willl crumble, but it’s not a question if any more it’s just how long will we have to suffer…..

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Intermediate status

Of Inflation up to 3.1 % in the US and 2.4% in EURo land

Does not need much more to get over 4%. If that is reached you money will half it’s value in just 18 years. And still the Fed is printing money as mad. So maybe 5% is not that far away.

And again “this time isn’t different”. The deledefs are making debts as much as they can. And the only question is not IF debt must be just. How much do I have to pay for the debts.
And the stealing goes on. They get the money first and profit from non risen prices and then people realize that they got poorer day-by-day. They’ll try to get higher wages and the spiral steepens.

I’ve my opinion of what to do against this gangsters. I suggest you check raw materials, precious metals and land. Maybe the prices are coming down and you can make a deal. But be aware.
If you will have something after this ponzi scheme tumbles down. You will have to pay for the new start. So you do not just pay one buy twice, thrice….

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Was this the beginning of the end?

I’m puzzling, was the buying of Skype the beginning of the end of Microsoft? What does have driven MS to spend as much money as 8 500 000 000 for that.

I don’t know where I’ve read it but there it was discussed that leaving one’s main area hardly is successfull very long. So what could MS have reached with their Cash cows for
8.5 billions? The MS-OSes are the “market” leader and office means nearly alway the MS Office suite. It is the tool for literally billons of people. This alone is “breath” taking.
And it runs on “your” machine.

For what will MS use Skype if not for “leaving” ones machine? So isn’t it the case that Skype is against the MS business model?

I really do not know if it was clever to take this step. I’m under the impression that MS just is “afraid”. Or maybe overconfident to “solve” the problems of the future. But if they leave their business behind
what else do they offer? MS is IMHO bound to “personal computers” and now they want to leave the “personal” behind….

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What have we won

or didn’t we have won?

Now that the “top” terrorist is dead, will we be safer?

According to this http://thebonnieblueblog.blogspot.com/ at least not on the railroad. So Al Kaida wanted to attacke the railway infrastructure.

So at least they are weakened a bit. They were able to use plans for the prior attacks. Now they “just can go by train”? But still we need to “react” on threats of them?
So what did we have won then?

It seems whatever there is there can just be one answer. More control, more buereacracy and more unproduktivity. Just imagine how much money did Al Kaida spend to bring down the
twin tower? We can assume a few millions.

How much did it cost to hunt down Osama? Well the US and Nato are now more or less at war for at least tens years. If the US . The “official” costs for the military is somewhat around 600 Billion (I just do not believe this figure for a second) and so 10 * 600 billions are 6000 billions or 6 trillions. Let’s be generous and say half of the money was spend because of Osama. Then we are talking about 3 trillions.

So let’s come to efficiency. Osama let’s say 100 million, USA 3 trillions Faktor is 100 000 000/3 000 000 000 000 = 0,0000333 as effective. Well we can say we just need 5-10 Osamas and the USA is finished. They would have spend all there money on “fighting” the terrorists. all the GDP would be burned. So in fact one just needs a Billion to bring the US down. Now tell me anything about the best equipped military complex of the world…. In fact Ghadaffi should have enough to handle that. … he#s a bit unfortunate nevertheless, because he has probably not so “fine fanatics” among his followers. So it seems Ghadaffi would be well advised to finance Al Kaida. They have enough fanatics, and he has the money. …. Would be deadly for this kind of US….

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Reading suggestion

Well if I’m have one special weakness, then it’s reading. And because of this weakness I stumbled upon quite few books which one just can
name “eye-opener”

It has happened with the following books: Human Action, the road to serfdom. Geldsozializmus, End the Fed, and stuff from Friedman. Now it has “happened” again. This
time I strongly propose reading “This Time is different”. In a few words. “The state of affairs is devastating”. I never could imagine men so stupid over and over again but
here we go.

I know this books will not be read by those responsible for the mess. For them another books is the guide line. “Expert Political Judgement” and here especially the hedgehoogs. And those
are mostly getting it wrong but it does not matter, the main reason for them is “They are heard”. And so you can easily identify them in the form of Bernanke, Krugman and all those. They “know” what the future will bring
and they “no for sure” the cure. Unfortunately most of the time they do not get it right. And you have one suggestion free on whom they harm…..

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Very well put

http://www.independent.org/blog/index.php?p=10405

Again there is nothing substantial to be add.

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